Effect of Feedback on Overconfidence
This graph measures the CDF of subjects' overconfidence about their performance relative to others. Overconfidence subtracts actual percentile performance (which ranges from 0 to 100) from predicted percentile performance (also from 0 to 100). Positive numbers indicate overconfidence.
The results show that the debiasing treatment decreases overconfidence: control subjects are 18 percentage points more likely to be overconfident than underconfident, while treated subjects are only 6 percentage points more likely to be overconfident.
Error bars indicate 95% confidence intervals.